Spring salmon numbers were exceptionally high from around the 1940s to the 60s, a period when winter in the North Western Atlantic was unusually warm, with Europe and the North Sea very cold.
The 1930s and 40s saw some of the coldest winters on record, this trend carried on until the late 1960s, the winter of 63 being particularly memorable. During this 30-year period, the Spey, along with many other rivers, was producing Multi Sea Winter [MSW] Spring Salmon as its main stock component. This abundance could almost certainly be put down to the fact that the warmer waters of the north western Atlantic were providing an abundance of food for fish migrating to this area. 

However, the same thing cannot be said for the 1980s & 90s, where our [European] winters have generally speaking, been milder, as the Western Atlantic has cooled, generally speaking, the North Sea, Norwegian and Barents Sea have all warmed up, thus providing fish migrating to this area with better feeding. Is it any surprise that now, at least 50% of the entire stock-component are now Grilse, fish that are known to feed much closer to home!! 
During the 90s, early running fish tended to run straight past, and without stopping, to the upper beats, because we are told, this is where all spring fish spawn. But is this where they have always spawned??

This might be the case in the 90s, but it was not always the case. One spring day in 1957 saw three rods fishing the Brae Water [the first main fishing beat] landing 44 Salmon, [no sign of all the fish running to the top then]. One of the main reasons for this was the very low water temperatures, and this cold snow water was in fact a natural barrier which slowed up the progress of fish. So, not only do cold winters have an effect on feeding at sea, but also on the habits of fish when they return to the river. 

Talking to old Ghillies who remember those times of plenty springers and breaking ice to fish for them can help us understand the differences between 1950s and the 1990s spring salmon.
Everything wild revolves around the weather [Grouse being another obvious example]; thankfully it is something we have no control over. 

Trying to enhance spring fish stocks in the 90s, with climatic conditions and lots of other things against it, seems to me to be a waste of resources, and it seems to me we are tinkering with nature in trying to do so. We must just be patient and wait until nature decides to give us springers again. Until that time we should be content with what we have, warmer winter’s summer salmon and grilse.
[Ian Gordon 1999]

The past few years have seen what I believe is the beginning of a change in the “Salmon Cycle”. This change is natural and has happened at regular intervals since the last ice age. Rivers change from producing spring fish to Grilse, from Grilse to Autumn Fish, The time of year at which a salmon enters the river to spawn is, I believe governed, in the main, by environmental factors. 

“To be fair, the lack of grilse has not come as much of a surprise, indeed I somewhat predicted this earlier in the season”. [Ian Gordon July 05].

It is unusual, in the same season to see a strong run of both Grilse and MSW fish, with 1978 and 80 being the exception. Interestingly, winters prior to both these seasons were NAO Low [see chart], almost the only time this has happened between 1970 and now.

Understanding more about this phenomenon should lead us to a better understanding of particular runs of fish, and to some extent, what we may expect during future fishing seasons.

The period between 1999 and 2005 has seen, in the UK, a general decline in numbers of Grilse, as well as a slight, but obvious, increase in MSW fish.
It is beginning to look very like, as it did in the past, the cycle is beginning to change in favour again of Multi Sea Winter [MSW] fish. It may be that, over the next ten or twenty years, the summer will be no longer the time providing the best sport on the middle Spey! 

We may see an upturn in Spring Fishing! It must be said however, it is unlikely that this change will take place over-night. What I believe we are seeing is a change, a different phase of a cycle that, in all probability will take another 20 years or more to complete. Never the less, based on what I have observed here on the Spey, and on other rivers, I firmly believe that the tide is without question beginning to change in favour of MSW fish and possibly later running Grilse. Will we see a return to the hay-days of the 50s and 60s? I would think in the short term the answer would have to be no, but in the longer term, if salmon could be afforded more protection [from man] at sea, then the answer should be yes. 

Although some may herald this change, if it happens, as a great thing for the river, I’m not quite so sure, the jury remains out!!

Spring Salmon an Obsession                 Top

Commercial angling during the 1990s has become big business. Pressure on salmon rivers has never been greater, with most anglers chasing the prime weeks.

A typical prime time week on the River Spey will cost between five and ten thousand pounds. Prime time on most Salmon Rivers is the summer months, June and July. It is during those months that we are likely to catch most fish. 
Through the 80s and 90s, we on the middle reaches of the Spey have been very fortunate to have a sustained run of fresh salmon. On these beats, it is possible to catch fresh salmon from the start of the season, in February, till around the end of August, making the letting of such beats commercially viable.

In February and March we would not expect to catch more than one or two fish for the week, but there is always the exception, as we have seen this year! 

April and May have long since been regarded as the main spring weeks on the middle Spey. Those months in the 50s and 60s were prime time on the middle Spey. Quality of fish at this time was fantastic, with fish of 15 to 20lbs commonplace. 
In the 1990s we crave for the return of those large two sea winter fish, we have become obsessed with the notion of the river filled with those large fish. 
We can only imagine how it must have been, all the stories of fish taking off down two or three pools, to be landed after a titanic struggle. If only we could see the return of those days!

Well, if we could turn the clock back this is what we would find.

We would find the river with lots of fish in April and May, Spring Salmon at abundant levels, then in June and July we would find the river with nothing but old stale fish. There would be no Grilse run, or nothing to speak of, fishing on the middle Spey would come to an end around the middle of July. With regard to the commercial side of angling, this would be a disaster. We would end up with one month of quality angling and the rest of the season we would find it difficult to let the fishing.
Not only would it be difficult to let the fishing in the summer, but also the fish we would catch in July would be stale and out of condition, to fish for those fish would not now be politically correct. Mind You, Bollocks to Political Correctness!!! 

So, if Salmon start returning to the river in the spring, and spring fish became the main stock component, would we be any better off?
Probably No, because, at the moment we have the small amount of spring fish, these attract, on the whole, the more experienced angler. We also have a fair run of early summer salmon; those also attract the experienced angler. Then we have the main fish component, the Grilse, which have been the main stock component on the Spey for the past 20 years. Early Grilse start coming into the river in May and last until early September, although these late Grilse [August/Sept] tend not to run as far as the middle river, and are exploited only on the lower beats.

What we have had in the 80s and 90s is a situation by where we can let our fishing’s on a commercial basis, knowing we can offer reasonable sport spread over most of the season. This could not happen if the river were a spring river and a spring river alone. 

In 1999, grilse were being described as vermin; indeed, it was suggested by one prominent person in early 1999 that we should “put the nets back onto the mouth of the river to catch the excess”. The reason given for this was “too many Grilse are bad for the river as they over cut redds of spring fish, thus interbreeding with and ultimately affecting the genetic integrity of the spring salmon”. The truth is that every fish in the river have interacted with one another since the last ice age. However, this view interested me at the time, it was around then that I begun to worry about the people running our fishery! 
In 1999 we had the worst grilse year for 20 years, and a slight improvement in the spring salmon catch. This, along with environmental factors may have been the catalyst for the change back to MSW fish again being the dominant component. I hope not, because over the last 20 years I have seen some fantastic fishing on the Spey, with some memorable spring, summer and autumn weeks. This has come about by the presence of not only spring salmon, but also summer salmon, grilse and sea trout. 

It must be noted that in the 50s and 60s there was very little commercial angling. Angling was a hobby of people fortunate enough to be invited to the river by the beat owner or leaseholder. Also, it must be said, traditionally, the middle Spey was not fished after the glorious twelfth. Only after the demise of the Grouse did estate factors begin to extract revenue from the old stale springers, which were the only fish present in this area at this time of year. This, along with the draining of the hill for conifer planting, has in my opinion, fuelled the demise of salmon in our rivers. 

In these days of commercial fishing, so much more angling pressure is now being placed on the resource. Catch and Release has come in the nick of time, when generally, stocks continue to give cause for concern. 

As a foot note,

In the late eighties I was asked my opinion by a chap wishing to acquire a timeshare on a famous river. Having quite a regard for this chap, I told him that I would not touch it with a barge pole. My reason - as I have explained above – Salmon change and adapt depending on environmental and other, normally man made factors, what might be good today will almost certainly not be good in 20 years time. 

In almost 20 years the said week went from catching almost 100 fish too less than 10. Thankfully for him his money remained in his and not the bank of one of these get rich quick agents.
Regarding Timeshare, my advice would be - do your homework and never buy at the top!! 

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Finally I must acknowledge help on the "North Atlantic Oscillation" by:
Dr. David B. Stephenson,          
Head of Climate Analysis Group,
Department of Meteorology,       
University of Reading.
More information on this subject can be found via his website –  http://www.met.rdg.ac.uk/cag/NAO/main.html

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